Kwiveki ephelileyo, imarike icinge ukuba i-yuan yayisondela kwi-7 yuan kwidola emva kokuhla kwesibini okubukhali konyaka owaqala ngo-Agasti 15.
Ngomhla we-15 kuSeptemba, i-yuan ye-offshore yawela ngaphantsi kwe-7 yuan ukuya kwi-dollar yase-US, yaqala ingxoxo eshushu yemarike.Ukususela ngentsimbi ye-10 ngoSeptemba 16, i-yuan ye-offshore yathengisa kwi-7.0327 kwidola.Kwakutheni ukuze kuqhawuke u-7 kwakhona?Okokuqala, isalathiso sedola sabetha phezulu.Ngomhla we-5 Septemba, i-index ye-dollar yawela kwinqanaba le-110 kwakhona, ibetha i-20-year high.Oku kubangelwa ubukhulu becala zizinto ezimbini: imozulu embi yamva nje eYurophu, uxinzelelo lwamandla olubangelwa kukungquzulana ngokwelizwe, kunye nolindelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso oluqhutywa kukuchacha kwamaxabiso ombane, zonke eziye zahlaziya umngcipheko wokudodobala koqoqosho lwehlabathi;Okwesibini, uSihlalo we-Fed uPowell "ukhozi" kwintlanganiso yonyaka yebhanki ephakathi e-Jackson Hole ngo-Agasti waphakamisa ukulindela inzala kwakhona.
Okwesibini, imingcipheko yezoqoqosho ephantsi yaseTshayina iye yanda.Kwiinyanga zamva nje, kuye kwakho izinto ezininzi ezichaphazela uphuhliso lwezoqoqosho: ukuqhambuka kwakhona kwalo bhubhani kwiindawo ezininzi kuchaphazele ngokuthe ngqo uphuhliso loqoqosho;Umsantsa phakathi kobonelelo kunye nemfuno yombane kwezinye iindawo unyanzelekile ukuba ucime umbane, nto leyo echaphazela ukusebenza kwezoqoqosho okuqhelekileyo;Imarike yezindlu nezindlu iye yachatshazelwa “liza lophazamiseko lonikezelo”, kwaye amashishini amaninzi anxulumene nawo nawo achaphazelekile.Ukukhula koqoqosho kujongene nokudodobala kulo nyaka.
Okokugqibela, iyantlukwano yomgaqo-lawulo wemali phakathi kweTshayina neUnited States iye yaba nzulu, izinga lenzala lexesha elide elasasazeka phakathi kweTshayina neUnited States liye landa ngokukhawuleza, kwaye iqondo eliguquliweyo lokuvunwa kweNondyebo liye landa.Ukuwa ngokukhawuleza kokusasazeka phakathi kwe-US kunye ne-Chinese ye-10 yeminyaka ye-Treasury bond ukusuka kwi-113 BP ekuqaleni konyaka ukuya kwi-65 BP ngoSeptemba 1 kuye kwakhokelela ekunciphiseni okuqhubekayo kwi-home bond holds by amaziko angaphandle.Enyanisweni, njengoko i-US yandisa umgaqo-nkqubo wemali kunye nedola yenyuka, ezinye iimali ezigciniweyo kwi-SDR (Amalungelo aKhethekileyo oMzobo) yawa ngokuchasene nedola., i-yuan ye-onshore ithengiswa kwi-7.0163 ukuya kwidola.
Iya kuba yintoni impembelelo ye-RMB "yokwaphula i-7" kumashishini orhwebo angaphandle?
Amashishini aphuma kumazwe angaphandle: Ngaba iindleko ziya kunyuka?
Izizathu ezibalulekileyo zalo mjikelo wokuhla kwexabiso le-RMB ngokubhekiselele kwidola zisekho: ukwanda ngokukhawuleza kwesantya senzala yexesha elide phakathi kweChina kunye ne-United States, kunye nokulungiswa komgaqo-mali wemali e-United States.
Ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yoxabiso lwedola yaseMelika, ezinye iimali ezigciniweyo kwi-SDR(Amalungelo awodwa oMzobo) zonke zehle ngokuphawulekayo xa zithelekiswa nedola yaseMelika.Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya ku-Agasti, i-euro yehla nge-12%, i-pound yaseBrithani yehla nge-14%, i-Yen yaseJapan yehla nge-17%, kwaye i-RMB yehla nge-8%.
Xa kuthelekiswa nezinye iimali ezingezizo iidola, ukuhla kwexabiso le-yuan kube kuncinci.Kwibhasikithi ye-SDR, ngaphezu kokuhla kwexabiso le-dollar yase-US, i-RMB iyayixabisa malunga neemali ezingezona zeedola zase-US, kwaye akukho xabiso lilonke le-RMB.
Ukuba amashishini angenisa imali asebenzisa i-dollar yokuhlala, ixabiso layo liyenyuka;Kodwa iindleko zokusebenzisa i-euro, i-sterling kunye ne-yen ziyancipha ngokwenene.
Ukususela ngo-10 ngoSeptemba 16, i-euro yayirhweba kwi-7.0161 yuan;Iponti ithengiswa kwi-8.0244;I-yuan ithengiswe kwi-yen ye-20.4099.
Amashishini athumela ngaphandle: Impembelelo entle yezinga lonaniso lilinganiselwe
Kumashishini athumela ngaphandle ikakhulu asebenzisa i-dollar yase-US, akukho mathandabuzo ukuba ukuhla kwexabiso le-renminbi kuzisa iindaba ezilungileyo, indawo yenzuzo yeshishini inokuphuculwa kakhulu.
Kodwa iinkampani ezihlala kwezinye iimali eziqhelekileyo kusafuneka zibeke iliso elibukhali kumaxabiso otshintshiselwano.
Kumashishini amancinci naphakathi, kufuneka sithathele ingqalelo ukuba ixesha lotshintshiselwano lwenzuzo liyahambelana nexesha lobalo.Ukuba kukho ukuchithwa, impembelelo enhle yezinga lokutshintshiselana liya kuba yinto engafanelekanga.
Ukuguquguquka kwezinga lokutshintshiselana kunokubangela ukuba abathengi balindele ukuxatyiswa kwedola, okukhokelela kuxinzelelo lwexabiso, ukulibaziseka kwentlawulo kunye nezinye iimeko.
Amashishini kufuneka enze umsebenzi olungileyo kulawulo lomngcipheko kunye nolawulo.Akufunekanga baphande kuphela imvelaphi yabathengi ngokweenkcukacha, kodwa kwakhona, xa kuyimfuneko, bathathe amanyathelo afana nokwandisa ngokufanelekileyo umlinganiselo wediphozithi, ukuthenga i-inshurensi yekhredithi yorhwebo, usebenzisa i-RMB yokuhlala ngokusemandleni, ukutshixa izinga lotshintshiselwano nge "hedging" kunye ukunciphisa ixesha lokunyaniseka kwexabiso ukulawula ifuthe elibi lokuguquguquka kwexabiso lotshintshiselwano.
03 Iingcebiso zokuhlalisa urhwebo lwangaphandle
Ukuguquguquka kwezinga lotshintshiselwano likrele elintlangothi-mbini, amanye amashishini orhwebo lwangaphandle sele eqalisile ukulungelelanisa ngokusebenzayo “utshintshiselwano lokutshixa” kunye namaxabiso okuphucula ukukhuphisana kwawo.
Iingcebiso ze-IPayLinks: Undoqo wolawulo lomngcipheko wotshintshiselwano ulele “ekugcineni” endaweni “yokuxabisa”, kwaye “isitshixo sokutshintshiselana” (i-hedging) sesona sixhobo sixhaphakileyo sokutshintsha izinga lotshintshiselwano ngoku.
Ngokubhekiselele kwizinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB ngokuchasene nedola yaseMelika, amashishini orhwebo angaphandle angagxila kwiingxelo ezifanelekileyo ze-Federal Reserve FOMC intlanganiso yokumisela inqanaba lenzala ngoSeptemba 22, ixesha laseBeijing.
Ngokwe-CME's Fed Watch, amathuba okuba i-Fed inyuse inzala ngamanqaku angama-75 ngoSeptemba yi-80%, kwaye amathuba okunyusa inzala ngamanqaku ayi-100 angama-20%.Kukho amathuba angama-36% okunyuka kwamanqaku ayi-125 ngoNovemba, amathuba angama-53% okunyuka kwamanqaku angama-150 kunye ne-11% yokunyuka kwamanqaku angama-175.
Ukuba i-Fed iyaqhubeka nokunyusa izinga lenzala ngokukhawuleza, i-index ye-dollar yase-US iya kuphinda ivuke ngokukhawuleza kwaye i-dollar yase-US iya kuqinisa, eya kwandisa ngakumbi uxinzelelo lokunciphisa i-RMB kunye nezinye iimali ezingekho phantsi kwe-US.
Ixesha lokuposa: Sep-20-2022